I figure, if I am going to write about MLS, and furthermore if I am going to write almost exclusively about one team that sooner or later I should go on record and make some predictions for the season. Coming off the back of the 2009 season I will admit to being frustrated when I heard Peter Vermes had taken the Coaches job, although I had no real idea about who I would prefer as an alternative that was realistic.
Since then there have been a wave of signings. We literally have a new squad and a new direction and I feel very different about things.
First the cuts – a lot of disappointing players from the 2009 roster are gone. Adam Cristman, Matt Marquess, Rauwshan McKenzie, Kurt Morsink, Boris Pardo, and Kevin Souter are gone. So? Yeah it feels much like that to most people but if you want any idea why we lacked depth look at that list again – 25% of the squad that made almost no impact at all. The known names that are gone are Lance Watson (who I really liked), Kevin Hartman, Claudio Lopez and Herculez Gomez. Kevin Hartman is going to be second string at Dallas, I think Lopez will probably retire and Herculez Gomez is banging in goals in Mexico playing much like a man who is reveling in playing in his chosen position for the first time in years.
Inbound we have a range of players. First, and astonishingly we still have three of our draft picks with us. Teal Bunbury was always going to make it, but tiny English winger/left back Olukorede Aiyegbusi has really impressed and looks to be a lock for a roster spot right now. Mauro Fuzetti is the final draft pick and looks like a quality prospect to me, fast, good control and a good touch he appears to be one of the cuts we will need to make as we reduce the squad to its final 24 and if he is one of these it bodes well for the strength of the squad overall. I personally hope we can hang onto him.
Aside of the draft we have signed Ryan Smith – a winger who the Wizards community are just now starting to recognize as a real star. Put him in a phone booth with a couple of MLS defenders and I swear he could still find space to run into. Stephane Auvrey, is a midfielder that is simply going to be one of those distinct MLS players. Handsome and dread locked, tenacious, skillful with wonderful balance when running on the ball – he simply screams quality. I think if the Wizards were to be on national television more than the paltry three times we are this season he has all the potential, along with Smith to be recognized far and wide as a star within the league.
Auvrey and Smith might represent the future fan favorites but we have also added Birahim Diop, Craig Rocastle and Igor Kostrov to the midfield picture creating a situation where we are simply loaded with the impressive Santiago Hirsig, and utilitarian Jack Jewsbury fighting for their lives in the squad. Diop looks like a starter and Rocastle has taken me from extremely dubious to a bit of a fan boy in almost no time. Rocastle I had initially cast as a holding midfielder but he is a much more dynamic presence, a good passer and again time seems to stand still when he is on the ball. He lumbers around midfield but you’ll see him back near the defense, or up top with the strikers the next minute. He can finish, and he is not scared to shoot, can win the ball and possession can be channeled through him. He might be the best player on the team at simply slowing things down and maintaining possession.
Diop is similar, not quite as comfortable on the ball but the kind of midfielder that apposing teams my grow to hate playing against. He is physical, and physically imposing. Kostrov looks useful but in the context of the remainder of the squad seems to be a reservist at this point although a useful one.
Jimmy Nielsen, our new Goalkeeper and seems to be qualified but has not really been put under and significant pressure during the pre-season and much the same can be said of Pablo Escobar, a rangy central defender from Columbia. We will have to wait and see how these two look, although I am less concerned about them given the midfield strength sitting in front of them.
At forward Josh Wolff and Davey Arnaud look to be the chosen two, which is unexciting. Given enough service Wolff can finish, he has demonstrated that. Arnaud up front will obviously score a few but will the partnership of Davey and Josh be fruitful enough to bring us real success? I don’t know. I would hope that there is enough goals in the remainder of the team to back them up, and there probably will need to be. This for me is the weak spot, but need not be as I genuinely believe that an extended run for Kai Kamara up top might actually yield more than Wolff. Kamara seems to be competing for a right midfield birth at this time where he does look impressive running at people, he is up against Harrington and a resurgent Myers who together looked fantastic on Saturday. The forgotten men in this discussion are Zoltan and Kraus. What more can I say? If they wind up starting at all I will be surprised especially if the rumor mill is true and we have indeed signed Sunil Cchetri, a forward from India.
The Cull
Zoltan, Kraus, Jewsbury, Hirsig, Fuzetti, Zusi, Leathers, and Holbein are all hanging out there as targets that can be cut or traded. Trading players for Senior International spots would seem to be the way forward if we cannot trade Hirsig and Zoltan off for players that qualify as domestic. Judging by pre-season form Hirsig, who has played in a more advanced position has looked rather impressive, and might have actually won himself a reprieve. I certainly hope so as he has looked excellent without the constraints of being forced into a defensive midfield role. He is in direct competition with Jewsbury and Zusi for the spot in center mid, folk seem to want to include Fuzetti in this however the majority of his field time has been on the wing as of late, that said he is up against Myers, Harrington and Kamara and that does not seem to leave much room for him. Kraus seems like a dead cert to go.
Outlook
With the playoffs and the question marks over Arnaud and Wolff up top I don’t think we are in much danger of winning the Supporter’s Shield – unless Chhetri arrives and turns out to be some kind of wunderkind or Kamara gets a shot and comes good we lack a genuine forward threat. While I am down on Wolff generally, he is the only player on our entire roster to have ever posted a double digit scoring season in MLS. He might be a fading dim star but he is the closest thing we have to proven in terms of goalscoring.
Fans point to Wolff’s eleven goals in 2009, however he does not create for others or himself and is entirely reliant upon good service. If Wolff equals his goal tally of 2009 it will be entirely down to the likes of Ryan Smith and Davey Arnaud creating goals for him and Wolff staying fit. 2009 was a good year for the 33 year old in terms in injuries – he played more than ever before in a season. If he does stay fit we know he can finish, if he does not then Kamara is waiting in the wings. Teal Bunbury may just be a little green however if deployed as Wolff currently is he will certainly score. I do not believe forward success is not dependent upon Wolff but I do believe we will use him as our primary striker based on his experience.
If Davey Arnaud plays as a genuine forward I have little concern about his scoring and creating goals. All things being equal he is unlikely to outscore Wolff but will generate goals for him. Wizards fans have grown accustomed to him scoring 30 yard bombs, and have unfairly turned against him for not continuing to score this way. His posted lousy numbers have largely been a product of him being played on the right side of midfield. We’ll have to see what he can do from 10 yards as a genuine forward but I think if the service is there he can and will score.
So yes, no supporters shield, and we probably will not be in the top four. With the playoffs leading to the MLS Cup however I will now go on record as saying the the Wizards have the potential to win it all. We will make the play offs, and we will not sneak in in last place. I look for the Wizards to post around 45 points on the season which is a substantial improvement over the measly 33 of 2009 but is only four wins extra, given the improvements in the squad and the apparent depth I do not think this is unreasonable. After the regular season things is just luck and as LA Galaxy will testify, the best team does not always win.
What is abundantly clear, with all the change is that three players more than anybody need to come good for the Wizards to see success:
Jimmy Conrad needs to be a brick wall in front of new goalkeeper Jimmy Nielsen. He will likely be more exposed in a team that is more attack oriented and will be working with a new center back Pablo Escobar. He needs to take charge of the defense, and be absolutely huge for us both in terms of leadership and defense. He has the quality, as he edges ever closer to the end of his career it is now time to prove that he still has the engine and the desire.
Davy Arnaud needs to get back to his early 2009 form, start scoring and start creating goals. I think a more forward position will allow this to happen, however Arnaud does have some proving to do. After his US Men’s National Team duty in the Gold Cup his form fell away alarmingly and he needs to get back to his best.
Josh Wolff, needs to stay fit. It’d be nice to talk about him finding more consistent goalscoring form, or Wolff creating more goals but for now I’ll simply accept being fit. He will score given the chances, but he needs to be on the field to do so. Until we are sure that we have a better goalscorer in Kamara, or Cchetri he simply is the best chance we have of scoring goals, which says much about our weakness up top.
